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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."